Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
SWESuperettan · Matchday 28Monday, 26 October 2026 · Behrn Arena
Orebro SK
13th · 29 pts1–0FULL TIME
Falkenbergs FF
2nd · 54 pts26% Orebro
23% Draw
50% Falkenbergs
OUR PICK
Falkenbergs FF to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.76
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.81X4.2621.99
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
Orebro SKFalkenbergs FF1.1Goals per game1.9
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.04Points per game1.86
21%Win rate55%
-11Goal difference15
6Form, last 5 (pts)10
Orebro SK form
WDDDLH Falkenbergs FF1–0
A IFK Norrkoping2–2
H Ljungskile SK1–1
H United Nordic1–1
A Sandviken4–2
Falkenbergs FF form
WLWWDH Sandviken2–1
A Orebro SK1–0
H Landskrona BoIS4–3
A IFK Varnamo1–2
H Ostersunds FK0–0
Head to head
2
Orebro
1
Draw
2
Falkenbergs
Oct 2026Orebro SK – Falkenbergs FF1–0
Jun 2026Falkenbergs FF – Orebro SK1–1
Oct 2025Orebro SK – Falkenbergs FF4–1
Apr 2025Falkenbergs FF – Orebro SK2–1
Oct 2020Falkenbergs FF – Orebro SK2–1
Superettan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1IFK Norrkoping29+4365
2Falkenbergs FF29+1554
3Varbergs BoIS FC29+1148
4Ostersunds FK29+948
5Oddevold29+1245
6Landskrona BoIS28+1344
7Osters IF28+142
8United Nordic29-442
9Sandviken29+538
10IFK Varnamo29-1035
Match preview
Our model makes Falkenbergs FF slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.21 for Orebro SK, 1.76 for Falkenbergs FF), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Orebro SK sit 13th on 29 points; Falkenbergs FF are 2nd on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.