Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 18 October 2026 · Championship Soccer Stadium
Orange County SC
1–3FULL TIME
Phoenix Rising
42% Orange
24% Draw
34% Phoenix
OUR PICK
Orange County SC to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.47
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X4.2322.93
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Orange County SC form
LLLLWA San Antonio2–1
H Phoenix Rising1–3
A El Paso Locomotive2–1
H Monterey Bay1–2
H Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0
Phoenix Rising form
LDWWLA New Mexico United2–0
H Lexington3–3
A Orange County SC1–3
H Las Vegas Lights3–2
A New Mexico United2–1
Head to head
1
Orange
1
Draw
3
Phoenix
Oct 2026Orange County SC – Phoenix Rising1–3
May 2026Phoenix Rising – Orange County SC2–1
Apr 2026Orange County SC – Phoenix Rising1–2
Mar 2026Phoenix Rising – Orange County SC1–1
Jul 2025Orange County SC – Phoenix Rising4–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Orange County SC 42%, the draw 24%, Phoenix Rising 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.66 for Orange County SC, 1.47 for Phoenix Rising), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.