Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 4 October 2026 · Championship Soccer Stadium
Orange County SC
1–2FULL TIME
Monterey Bay
55% Orange
23% Draw
23% Monterey
OUR PICK
Orange County SC to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.12
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.83X4.4224.40
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.76
GG
57%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Orange County SC form
LLLLWA San Antonio2–1
H Phoenix Rising1–3
A El Paso Locomotive2–1
H Monterey Bay1–2
H Pittsburgh Riverhounds1–0
Monterey Bay form
WLLWLH Las Vegas Lights2–1
H Colorado Springs0–1
A New Mexico United3–1
A Orange County SC1–2
H Lexington2–3
Head to head
1
Orange
0
Draw
4
Monterey
Oct 2026Orange County SC – Monterey Bay1–2
Jul 2026Monterey Bay – Orange County SC1–2
Jul 2025Monterey Bay – Orange County SC2–1
Jun 2025Monterey Bay – Orange County SC3–2
Mar 2025Orange County SC – Monterey Bay0–3
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Orange County SC clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.86 for Orange County SC, 1.12 for Monterey Bay), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.