Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
BRASerie B · Matchday 35Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio Germano Kruger
Operario-PR
11th · 51 pts1–0FULL TIME
Athletic Club
14th · 47 pts41% Operario-PR
26% Draw
33% Athletic
OUR PICK
Operario-PR to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.46
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.46X3.8423.01
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.87NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.87
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Operario-PRAthletic Club1.3Goals per game1.2
1.3Conceded per game1.1
1.42Points per game1.31
39%Win rate31%
-2Goal difference1
3Form, last 5 (pts)5
Operario-PR form
LWLLLA Novorizontino2–1
H Athletic Club1–0
A America Mineiro1–0
H Goias0–2
H Botafogo SP1–2
Athletic Club form
WLDDLH Ceara2–1
A Operario-PR1–0
A Avai0–0
H Londrina2–2
A Goias2–1
Head to head
2
Operario-PR
0
Draw
2
Athletic
Oct 2026Operario-PR – Athletic Club1–0
Jul 2026Athletic Club – Operario-PR0–1
Oct 2025Operario-PR – Athletic Club1–4
Jun 2025Athletic Club – Operario-PR2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Operario-PR 41%, the draw 26%, Athletic Club 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.40 for Operario-PR, 1.24 for Athletic Club), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Operario-PR sit 11th on 51 points; Athletic Club are 14th on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.