Over 1.5 goals@1.44
Over 1.5
69%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 14Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Palogrande
Once Caldas
5th · 33 pts1–0FULL TIME
Llaneros
14th · 22 pts53% Once
26% Draw
21% Llaneros
OUR PICK
Once Caldas to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.87
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X3.8924.71
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
Once CaldasLlaneros1.6Goals per game0.9
1.2Conceded per game1.1
1.74Points per game1.16
42%Win rate21%
9Goal difference-3
11Form, last 5 (pts)6
Once Caldas form
WWDDWA Santa Fe0–2
H Alianza Valledupar1–0
H Deportivo Pereira1–1
A Millonarios1–1
A Independiente Medellin0–2
Llaneros form
WLLWLH Junior3–2
A Jaguares1–0
H Deportivo Cali0–3
H Santa Fe1–0
A Internacional de Bogota4–1
Head to head
2
Once
1
Draw
1
Llaneros
Oct 2026Once Caldas – Llaneros1–0
Mar 2026Llaneros – Once Caldas1–1
Oct 2025Llaneros – Once Caldas2–0
Mar 2025Once Caldas – Llaneros1–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Once Caldas clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.54 for Once Caldas, 0.87 for Llaneros), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Once Caldas sit 5th on 33 points; Llaneros are 14th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.