Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 16Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Palogrande
Once Caldas
5th · 33 pts1–1FULL TIME
Deportivo Pereira
20th · 10 pts73% Once
17% Draw
10% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Once Caldas to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.36
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.72
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.36X5.94210.11
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.25
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
Once CaldasDeportivo Pereira1.6Goals per game0.8
1.2Conceded per game1.7
1.74Points per game0.53
42%Win rate5%
9Goal difference-17
11Form, last 5 (pts)9
Once Caldas form
WWDDWA Santa Fe0–2
H Alianza Valledupar1–0
H Deportivo Pereira1–1
A Millonarios1–1
A Independiente Medellin0–2
Deportivo Pereira form
WDWDDH Jaguares1–0
A Once Caldas1–1
H Chico2–0
A Junior1–1
H Deportivo Cali0–0
Head to head
1
Once
3
Draw
1
Deportivo
Oct 2026Once Caldas – Deportivo Pereira1–1
Apr 2026Deportivo Pereira – Once Caldas0–0
Sept 2025Once Caldas – Deportivo Pereira1–0
Aug 2025Deportivo Pereira – Once Caldas2–1
Mar 2025Deportivo Pereira – Once Caldas1–1
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Once Caldas clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.32 for Once Caldas, 0.72 for Deportivo Pereira), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Once Caldas sit 5th on 33 points; Deportivo Pereira are 20th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.