Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 5Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Estadio Palogrande
Once Caldas
5th · 33 pts1–0FULL TIME
Alianza Valledupar
17th · 17 pts67% Once
20% Draw
12% Alianza
OUR PICK
Once Caldas to win
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.48
Expected goals
1.99 – 0.71
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.48X4.9628.08
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
Once CaldasAlianza Valledupar1.6Goals per game0.7
1.2Conceded per game1.4
1.74Points per game0.89
42%Win rate16%
9Goal difference-14
11Form, last 5 (pts)7
Once Caldas form
WWDDWA Santa Fe0–2
H Alianza Valledupar1–0
H Deportivo Pereira1–1
A Millonarios1–1
A Independiente Medellin0–2
Alianza Valledupar form
LLWWDA Independiente Medellin2–1
A Once Caldas1–0
H Internacional de Bogota1–0
A Deportivo Pasto0–1
H Águilas Doradas2–2
Head to head
2
Once
2
Draw
1
Alianza
Oct 2026Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar1–0
Sept 2026Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar1–0
Feb 2026Alianza Valledupar – Once Caldas1–1
Aug 2025Alianza Valledupar – Once Caldas0–0
Mar 2025Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar1–2
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Once Caldas clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.99 for Once Caldas, 0.71 for Alianza Valledupar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Once Caldas sit 5th on 33 points; Alianza Valledupar are 17th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.