Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · GSP Stadium
Omonia Nicosia
11th · 6 pts1–4FULL TIME
Benfica
1st · 9 pts43% Omonia
26% Draw
31% Benfica
OUR PICK
Omonia Nicosia to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.32
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.32X3.8923.21
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Omonia NicosiaBenfica1.7Goals per game3.3
1.3Conceded per game0.7
2.00Points per game3.00
67%Win rate100%
1Goal difference8
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Omonia Nicosia form
WLLDWH AEL2–0
A AEK Larnaca2–0
H Benfica1–4
H Olympiakos2–2
A Celje0–3
Benfica form
WWWWWH GIL Vicente4–1
A Santa Clara1–2
A Omonia Nicosia1–4
H Celtic4–1
H Vitória SC2–0
Head to head
0
Omonia
0
Draw
1
Benfica
Oct 2026Omonia Nicosia – Benfica1–4
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Omonia Nicosia slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.47 for Omonia Nicosia, 1.21 for Benfica), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Omonia Nicosia sit 11th on 6 points; Benfica are 1st on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.