Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 12Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · NACK5 Stadium Omiya
Omiya Ardija
5th · 24 pts0–3FULL TIME
Kataller Toyama
3rd · 25 pts48% Omiya
24% Draw
29% Kataller
OUR PICK
Omiya Ardija to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.30
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.09X4.2523.48
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Omiya ArdijaKataller Toyama1.8Goals per game1.9
1.2Conceded per game1.0
1.71Points per game1.79
43%Win rate50%
8Goal difference12
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Omiya Ardija form
DWDLLH Iwaki0–0
A Vegalta Sendai1–2
H Yokohama FC2–2
H Kataller Toyama0–3
A Sagan Tosu2–1
Kataller Toyama form
WWLWDH Vegalta Sendai1–0
A Albirex Niigata2–3
H Consadole Sapporo0–1
A Omiya Ardija0–3
H Shonan Bellmare1–1
Head to head
1
Omiya
2
Draw
2
Kataller
Oct 2026Omiya Ardija – Kataller Toyama0–3
Aug 2025Kataller Toyama – Omiya Ardija0–2
May 2025Omiya Ardija – Kataller Toyama2–2
Nov 2024Omiya Ardija – Kataller Toyama1–2
Jun 2024Kataller Toyama – Omiya Ardija1–1
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Omiya Ardija slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.74 for Omiya Ardija, 1.30 for Kataller Toyama), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Omiya Ardija sit 5th on 24 points; Kataller Toyama are 3rd on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.