Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 15Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · NACK5 Stadium Omiya
Omiya Ardija
5th · 24 pts06:00KICK-OFF WAT
Iwaki
8th · 20 pts54% Omiya
21% Draw
25% Iwaki
OUR PICK
Omiya Ardija to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.34
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.87X4.6724.00
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Omiya ArdijaIwaki1.8Goals per game1.6
1.2Conceded per game1.4
1.71Points per game1.43
43%Win rate43%
8Goal difference3
7Form, last 5 (pts)11
Omiya Ardija form
WDLLWA Vegalta Sendai1–2
H Yokohama FC2–2
H Kataller Toyama0–3
A Sagan Tosu2–1
H Vanraure Hachinohe3–1
Iwaki form
WDDWWA Tochigi City1–3
H Jubilo Iwata1–1
A Shonan Bellmare1–1
H Ventforet Kofu5–0
H Blaublitz Akita1–0
Head to head
1
Omiya
2
Draw
2
Iwaki
May 2026Omiya Ardija – Iwaki3–2
Mar 2026Iwaki – Omiya Ardija1–1
Jul 2025Omiya Ardija – Iwaki1–2
Apr 2025Iwaki – Omiya Ardija2–1
Mar 2025Omiya Ardija – Iwaki3–3
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Omiya Ardija slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.04 for Omiya Ardija, 1.34 for Iwaki), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Omiya Ardija sit 5th on 24 points; Iwaki are 8th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.