Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Karaiskakis Stadium
Olympiakos Piraeus
5th · 9 pts1–0FULL TIME
Sparta Praha
16th · 4 pts42% Olympiakos
25% Draw
32% Sparta
OUR PICK
Olympiakos Piraeus to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.36
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.29
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.36X3.9823.08
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Olympiakos PiraeusSparta Praha1.3Goals per game1.7
0.3Conceded per game1.0
3.00Points per game1.33
100%Win rate33%
3Goal difference2
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Olympiakos Piraeus form
WWWWWA Kifisia2–3
A Marko0–2
H Kalamata5–0
H Sparta Praha1–0
A Panetolikos0–2
Sparta Praha form
DLWLDA Bohemians 19050–0
H Baník Ostrava0–2
H Slovácko5–1
A Olympiakos Piraeus1–0
A Baník Ostrava0–0
Head to head
1
Olympiakos
0
Draw
0
Sparta
Oct 2026Olympiakos Piraeus – Sparta Praha1–0
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Olympiakos Piraeus slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.51 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1.29 for Sparta Praha), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus sit 5th on 9 points; Sparta Praha are 16th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.