Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
80%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Boundary Park
Oldham
21st · 12 pts0–0FULL TIME
Accrington ST
9th · 19 pts30% Oldham
24% Draw
46% Accrington
OUR PICK
Accrington ST to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.69
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.30X4.2022.18
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
OldhamAccrington ST1.1Goals per game1.6
1.5Conceded per game1.2
0.92Points per game1.36
23%Win rate29%
-5Goal difference6
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
Oldham form
LDLWWH Crawley Town0–1
A Barnet1–1
A Walsall3–0
H Cheltenham4–1
H Leeds United U214–2
Accrington ST form
DWDWDH Northampton1–1
A Rochdale0–5
A York1–1
H Gillingham3–1
A Oldham0–0
Head to head
1
Oldham
2
Draw
2
Accrington
Oct 2026Oldham – Accrington ST0–0
May 2026Oldham – Accrington ST3–0
Nov 2025Accrington ST – Oldham1–0
Aug 2025Accrington ST – Oldham3–1
Aug 2021Oldham – Accrington ST0–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Accrington ST slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.33 for Oldham, 1.69 for Accrington ST), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Oldham sit 21st on 12 points; Accrington ST are 9th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.