Over 1.5 goals@1.96
Over 1.5
51%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Resonac Dome Oita
Oita Trinita
10th · 19 pts2–1FULL TIME
Montedio Yamagata
16th · 16 pts44% Oita
33% Draw
23% Montedio
OUR PICK
Oita Trinita to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.67
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.29X3.0224.31
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.33
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
68%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Oita TrinitaMontedio Yamagata1.2Goals per game0.9
0.9Conceded per game1.0
1.36Points per game1.14
29%Win rate36%
5Goal difference-1
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Oita Trinita form
LDDWWA Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0
H Ventforet Kofu1–1
A Jubilo Iwata0–0
H Albirex Niigata5–1
A Yokohama FC1–2
Montedio Yamagata form
WLLDLA Vanraure Hachinohe1–2
H Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2
H Consadole Sapporo0–2
A Fujieda MYFC0–0
H Vegalta Sendai0–1
Head to head
2
Oita
0
Draw
3
Montedio
Oct 2026Oita Trinita – Montedio Yamagata2–1
Jun 2026Oita Trinita – Montedio Yamagata1–0
Nov 2025Oita Trinita – Montedio Yamagata1–2
May 2025Montedio Yamagata – Oita Trinita3–0
Sept 2024Oita Trinita – Montedio Yamagata0–3
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Oita Trinita slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 33% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (1.04 for Oita Trinita, 0.67 for Montedio Yamagata), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Oita Trinita sit 10th on 19 points; Montedio Yamagata are 16th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.