Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Resonac Dome Oita
Oita Trinita
10th · 19 pts5–1FULL TIME
Albirex Niigata
2nd · 26 pts42% Oita
29% Draw
29% Albirex
OUR PICK
Oita Trinita to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.36
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.98
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.36X3.5023.45
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
55%
Double chance@1.40
12
71%
Season stats
Oita TrinitaAlbirex Niigata1.2Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game1.7
1.36Points per game1.86
29%Win rate57%
5Goal difference-3
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Oita Trinita form
LDDWWA Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0
H Ventforet Kofu1–1
A Jubilo Iwata0–0
H Albirex Niigata5–1
A Yokohama FC1–2
Albirex Niigata form
LWWLDH Kataller Toyama2–3
H Vegalta Sendai2–1
H Sagan Tosu2–1
A Oita Trinita5–1
A Shonan Bellmare1–1
Head to head
4
Oita
0
Draw
1
Albirex
Oct 2026Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata5–1
Sept 2022Albirex Niigata – Oita Trinita0–1
Jun 2022Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata1–2
Aug 2018Oita Trinita – Albirex Niigata4–0
May 2018Albirex Niigata – Oita Trinita1–2
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Oita Trinita slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.25 for Oita Trinita, 0.98 for Albirex Niigata), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Oita Trinita sit 10th on 19 points; Albirex Niigata are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.