Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
BELJupiler Pro League · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Den Dreef
OH Leuven
13th · 9 pts18:15KICK-OFF WAT
KV Mechelen
14th · 9 pts44% OH
26% Draw
30% KV
OUR PICK
OH Leuven to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.27X3.8723.32
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
OH LeuvenKV Mechelen1.0Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.9
0.90Points per game1.00
20%Win rate22%
-7Goal difference-7
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
OH Leuven form
WDWDWA St. Truiden1–2
H Lommel United2–2
H Francs Borains1–0
A Union St. Gilloise1–1
H RAAL La Louvière2–0
KV Mechelen form
WWWLDH Genk1–0
H AS Eupen5–1
H St. Truiden4–3
H Karpaty2–3
A Lommel United0–0
Head to head
1
OH
3
Draw
1
KV
Feb 2026OH Leuven – KV Mechelen2–2
Oct 2025KV Mechelen – OH Leuven1–1
May 2025OH Leuven – KV Mechelen1–2
Apr 2025KV Mechelen – OH Leuven1–1
Jan 2025OH Leuven – KV Mechelen1–0
Jupiler Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club Brugge KV10+1827
2Union St. Gilloise10+2226
3Gent10+1325
4Charleroi10+924
5Anderlecht10+219
6Genk10+415
7Lommel United10+215
8KVC Westerlo10014
9Standard Liege10-112
10Zulte Waregem10-411
Match preview
Our model makes OH Leuven slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.47 for OH Leuven, 1.17 for KV Mechelen), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
OH Leuven sit 13th on 9 points; KV Mechelen are 14th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.