Over 1.5 goals@1.78
Over 1.5
56%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Monday, 5 October 2026 · Estadio Nueva Chicago
Nueva Chicago
0–1FULL TIME
Deportivo Maipu
29% Nueva
32% Draw
39% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Deportivo Maipu to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.53
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.04
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.48X3.1422.53
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.41
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.40
X2
71%
Nueva Chicago form
DLLLWH San Martin S.J.1–1
H Gimnasia Jujuy0–1
A Temperley2–1
H Deportivo Maipu0–1
A Almagro0–1
Deportivo Maipu form
DWLDWA Tristan Suarez0–0
H Club Atlético Güemes3–1
A Chacarita Juniors1–0
H San Martin S.J.1–1
A Nueva Chicago0–1
Head to head
1
Nueva
0
Draw
4
Deportivo
Oct 2026Nueva Chicago – Deportivo Maipu0–1
May 2026Deportivo Maipu – Nueva Chicago1–0
Sept 2022Deportivo Maipu – Nueva Chicago1–0
Oct 2021Deportivo Maipu – Nueva Chicago0–2
Jun 2021Nueva Chicago – Deportivo Maipu1–2
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Deportivo Maipu slight favourites, giving them a 39% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.53 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.84 for Nueva Chicago, 1.04 for Deportivo Maipu), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.