Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie B · Matchday 31Friday, 2 October 2026 · Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Novorizontino
1st · 67 pts3–0FULL TIME
Goias
9th · 52 pts61% Novorizontino
23% Draw
16% Goias
OUR PICK
Novorizontino to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.63
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.75
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.63X4.3526.44
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.18
1X
84%
Season stats
NovorizontinoGoias1.8Goals per game1.0
0.9Conceded per game1.1
1.86Points per game1.49
53%Win rate43%
33Goal difference-4
13Form, last 5 (pts)10
Novorizontino form
WWDWWH Operario-PR2–1
A Atletico Goianiense0–1
A Vila Nova2–2
H Ponte Preta5–1
A Nautico Recife0–2
Goias form
WDWWLA Ceara0–2
H Nautico Recife0–0
A Operario-PR0–2
H Athletic Club2–1
A Novorizontino3–0
Head to head
3
Novorizontino
0
Draw
2
Goias
Oct 2026Novorizontino – Goias3–0
Jun 2026Goias – Novorizontino0–4
Nov 2025Goias – Novorizontino1–0
Jul 2025Novorizontino – Goias1–0
Nov 2024Goias – Novorizontino1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Novorizontino clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.76 for Novorizontino, 0.75 for Goias), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Novorizontino sit 1st on 67 points; Goias are 9th on 52.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.