Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
66%
BRASerie B · Matchday 37Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Novorizontino
1st · 67 pts20:10KICK-OFF WAT
Fortaleza EC
5th · 62 pts53% Novorizontino
27% Draw
21% Fortaleza
OUR PICK
Novorizontino to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.81
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X3.7724.83
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
NovorizontinoFortaleza EC1.8Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game0.9
1.86Points per game1.72
53%Win rate44%
33Goal difference12
13Form, last 5 (pts)9
Novorizontino form
WWDWWH Operario-PR2–1
A Atletico Goianiense0–1
A Vila Nova2–2
H Ponte Preta5–1
A Nautico Recife0–2
Fortaleza EC form
DDWDWH Atletico Goianiense0–0
A Ponte Preta2–2
A Sport Recife0–2
H CRB2–2
A America Mineiro0–1
Head to head
0
Novorizontino
0
Draw
1
Fortaleza
Jul 2026Fortaleza EC – Novorizontino1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Novorizontino clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.47 for Novorizontino, 0.81 for Fortaleza EC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Novorizontino sit 1st on 67 points; Fortaleza EC are 5th on 62.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.