Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Meadow Lane
Notts County
17th · 14 pts2–0FULL TIME
Sheffield Wednesday
9th · 20 pts26% Notts
27% Draw
48% Sheffield
OUR PICK
Sheffield Wednesday to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.43
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.91X3.7422.10
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.34
X2
74%
Season stats
Notts CountySheffield Wednesday1.1Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.1
1.17Points per game1.54
25%Win rate38%
-1Goal difference8
7Form, last 5 (pts)5
Notts County form
WDWLWA Mansfield Town0–2
H Stockport County1–1
H Sheffield Wednesday2–0
A Wycombe2–0
H Nottingham Forest U215–1
Sheffield Wednesday form
DDLLWH Blackpool1–1
H Cambridge United1–1
A Doncaster2–0
A Notts County2–0
H AFC Wimbledon5–0
Head to head
1
Notts
0
Draw
3
Sheffield
Oct 2026Notts County – Sheffield Wednesday2–0
Aug 2014Sheffield Wednesday – Notts County3–0
Mar 2012Notts County – Sheffield Wednesday1–2
Aug 2011Sheffield Wednesday – Notts County2–1
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Sheffield Wednesday slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.97 for Notts County, 1.43 for Sheffield Wednesday), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Notts County sit 17th on 14 points; Sheffield Wednesday are 9th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.