Over 1.5 goals@1.59
Over 1.5
63%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Meadow Lane
Notts County
17th · 14 pts1–2FULL TIME
Oxford United
3rd · 23 pts30% Notts
29% Draw
40% Oxford
OUR PICK
Oxford United to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.17
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.31X3.4022.48
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.42
12
71%
Season stats
Notts CountyOxford United1.1Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.17Points per game1.92
25%Win rate50%
-1Goal difference9
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Notts County form
WDWLWA Mansfield Town0–2
H Stockport County1–1
H Sheffield Wednesday2–0
A Wycombe2–0
H Nottingham Forest U215–1
Oxford United form
DWDWDA Barnsley1–1
H Stockport County1–0
H Bradford0–0
H Wigan2–1
A Mansfield Town1–1
Head to head
0
Notts
0
Draw
3
Oxford
Oct 2026Notts County – Oxford United1–2
Jan 2016Notts County – Oxford United2–4
Aug 2015Oxford United – Notts County3–1
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Oxford United slight favourites, giving them a 40% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.97 for Notts County, 1.17 for Oxford United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Notts County sit 17th on 14 points; Oxford United are 3rd on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.