Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 10Saturday, 7 November 2026 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest
19th · 6 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Manchester City
2nd · 21 pts18% Nottingham
24% Draw
58% Manchester
OUR PICK
Manchester City to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.73
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.73
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.42X4.2421.73
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.23
X2
82%
Season stats
Nottingham ForestManchester City0.7Goals per game2.2
1.3Conceded per game1.1
0.67Points per game2.33
11%Win rate78%
-6Goal difference10
1Form, last 5 (pts)9
Nottingham Forest form
LDLLLA Brentford2–0
A Ipswich1–1
H Arsenal0–1
A Crystal Palace3–1
H Coventry0–1
Manchester City form
LDLWWH Brighton0–1
H Brighton2–2
A Aston Villa2–1
H AEK Athens FC5–1
H Ipswich3–2
Head to head
1
Nottingham
1
Draw
3
Manchester
Mar 2026Manchester City – Nottingham Forest2–2
Dec 2025Nottingham Forest – Manchester City1–2
Apr 2025Nottingham Forest – Manchester City0–2
Mar 2025Nottingham Forest – Manchester City1–0
Dec 2024Manchester City – Nottingham Forest3–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Manchester City clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.73 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.86 for Nottingham Forest, 1.73 for Manchester City), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nottingham Forest sit 19th on 6 points; Manchester City are 2nd on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.