Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest
19th · 6 pts0–1FULL TIME
Arsenal
1st · 24 pts18% Nottingham
28% Draw
54% Arsenal
OUR PICK
Arsenal to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.39
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.47X3.6121.85
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.59
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.59
NG
63%
Double chance@1.22
X2
82%
Season stats
Nottingham ForestArsenal0.7Goals per game1.6
1.3Conceded per game0.6
0.67Points per game2.67
11%Win rate89%
-6Goal difference9
1Form, last 5 (pts)12
Nottingham Forest form
LDLLLA Brentford2–0
A Ipswich1–1
H Arsenal0–1
A Crystal Palace3–1
H Coventry0–1
Arsenal form
WDWDWA Liverpool0–1
A Fleetwood Town1–1
H Everton2–0
A Bayern München2–2
A Nottingham Forest0–1
Head to head
0
Nottingham
2
Draw
3
Arsenal
Oct 2026Nottingham Forest – Arsenal0–1
Jan 2026Nottingham Forest – Arsenal0–0
Sept 2025Arsenal – Nottingham Forest3–0
Feb 2025Nottingham Forest – Arsenal0–0
Nov 2024Arsenal – Nottingham Forest3–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.68 for Nottingham Forest, 1.39 for Arsenal), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nottingham Forest sit 19th on 6 points; Arsenal are 1st on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.