Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 10Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Carrow Road
Norwich
15th · 15 pts0–1FULL TIME
Southampton
5th · 23 pts28% Norwich
20% Draw
52% Southampton
OUR PICK
Southampton to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.26
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.59X4.9621.92
Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.39NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.39
GG
72%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
NorwichSouthampton1.8Goals per game2.2
1.8Conceded per game1.0
1.15Points per game1.77
38%Win rate62%
-1Goal difference15
6Form, last 5 (pts)13
Norwich form
WWLLLH Watford3–2
A Charlton1–3
H Portsmouth0–1
H Southampton0–1
A Swansea2–1
Southampton form
WWDWWH QPR4–1
A West Ham2–3
H Bolton0–0
A Norwich0–1
H Portsmouth1–0
Head to head
1
Norwich
1
Draw
3
Southampton
Oct 2026Norwich – Southampton0–1
Mar 2026Southampton – Norwich1–0
Dec 2025Norwich – Southampton2–1
Aug 2025Norwich – Southampton0–3
Jan 2024Norwich – Southampton1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Southampton slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (1.63 for Norwich, 2.26 for Southampton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Norwich sit 15th on 15 points; Southampton are 5th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.