Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Carrow Road
Norwich
15th · 15 pts0–1FULL TIME
Portsmouth
11th · 19 pts46% Norwich
23% Draw
31% Portsmouth
OUR PICK
Norwich to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.43
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X4.3623.25
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
NorwichPortsmouth1.8Goals per game1.2
1.8Conceded per game1.2
1.15Points per game1.46
38%Win rate38%
-1Goal difference1
6Form, last 5 (pts)11
Norwich form
WWLLLH Watford3–2
A Charlton1–3
H Portsmouth0–1
H Southampton0–1
A Swansea2–1
Portsmouth form
DWDWWA Burnley0–0
H Millwall2–1
A Wolves1–1
A Norwich0–1
H Sheffield Utd3–2
Head to head
1
Norwich
2
Draw
2
Portsmouth
Oct 2026Norwich – Portsmouth0–1
Apr 2026Norwich – Portsmouth1–1
Aug 2025Portsmouth – Norwich1–2
Apr 2025Norwich – Portsmouth3–5
Dec 2024Portsmouth – Norwich0–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Norwich slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.80 for Norwich, 1.43 for Portsmouth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Norwich sit 15th on 15 points; Portsmouth are 11th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.