Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
CROHNL · Matchday 11Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Stadion Varteks
NK Varazdin
4th · 19 pts1–2FULL TIME
NK Slaven Belupo
7th · 13 pts69% NK
19% Draw
12% NK
OUR PICK
NK Varazdin to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.71
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.44X5.2128.63
Goals 2.5Over1.90Under2.01
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.13
1X
88%
Season stats
NK VarazdinNK Slaven Belupo1.3Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game2.1
1.58Points per game1.08
42%Win rate33%
5Goal difference-11
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
NK Varazdin form
DDLLWA HNK Rijeka1–1
H NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
H NK Slaven Belupo1–2
A HNK Hajduk Split1–0
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–1
NK Slaven Belupo form
LWLWLH Istra 19610–2
A NK Varazdin1–2
H Dinamo Zagreb1–5
H HNK Rijeka4–1
A Olimpija Ljubljana2–1
Head to head
3
NK
0
Draw
2
NK
Oct 2026NK Varazdin – NK Slaven Belupo1–2
Aug 2026NK Slaven Belupo – NK Varazdin1–4
Apr 2026NK Varazdin – NK Slaven Belupo2–1
Jan 2026NK Slaven Belupo – NK Varazdin0–2
Oct 2025NK Varazdin – NK Slaven Belupo1–3
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes NK Varazdin clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.08 for NK Varazdin, 0.71 for NK Slaven Belupo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NK Varazdin sit 4th on 19 points; NK Slaven Belupo are 7th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.