Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
CROHNL · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas
NK Slaven Belupo
7th · 13 pts4–1FULL TIME
HNK Rijeka
5th · 18 pts18% NK
22% Draw
60% HNK
OUR PICK
HNK Rijeka to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.66
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.95
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.48X4.6321.66
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.22
X2
82%
Season stats
NK Slaven BelupoHNK Rijeka1.2Goals per game1.6
2.1Conceded per game1.4
1.08Points per game1.64
33%Win rate45%
-11Goal difference3
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
NK Slaven Belupo form
LWLWLH Istra 19610–2
A NK Varazdin1–2
H Dinamo Zagreb1–5
H HNK Rijeka4–1
A Olimpija Ljubljana2–1
HNK Rijeka form
DLWWLH NK Varazdin1–1
A Dinamo Zagreb2–1
A Karlovac 19191–4
A Rudes1–2
A NK Slaven Belupo4–1
Head to head
1
NK
2
Draw
2
HNK
Oct 2026NK Slaven Belupo – HNK Rijeka4–1
Apr 2026HNK Rijeka – NK Slaven Belupo2–0
Apr 2026NK Slaven Belupo – HNK Rijeka0–2
Jan 2026HNK Rijeka – NK Slaven Belupo2–2
Oct 2025NK Slaven Belupo – HNK Rijeka1–1
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes HNK Rijeka clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.66 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (0.97 for NK Slaven Belupo, 1.95 for HNK Rijeka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NK Slaven Belupo sit 7th on 13 points; HNK Rijeka are 5th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.