Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
CROHNL · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Opus Arena
NK Osijek
3rd · 20 pts1–3FULL TIME
Istra 1961
6th · 16 pts55% NK
21% Draw
23% Istra
OUR PICK
NK Osijek to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.27
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.81X4.7024.28
Goals 2.5Over1.55Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
63%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
NK OsijekIstra 19611.8Goals per game1.8
1.4Conceded per game1.5
1.67Points per game1.33
50%Win rate33%
5Goal difference3
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
NK Osijek form
WLDLDA NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–3
H Rudes0–1
H HNK Gorica1–1
H Istra 19611–3
H Bsk Bijelo Brdo1–1
Istra 1961 form
WDLWLA NK Slaven Belupo0–2
H HNK Hajduk Split2–2
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–0
A NK Osijek1–3
H HNK Gorica0–1
Head to head
1
NK
0
Draw
4
Istra
Oct 2026NK Osijek – Istra 19611–3
May 2026NK Osijek – Istra 19610–1
Mar 2026Istra 1961 – NK Osijek0–1
Dec 2025NK Osijek – Istra 19611–5
Sept 2025Istra 1961 – NK Osijek2–1
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes NK Osijek clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.05 for NK Osijek, 1.27 for Istra 1961), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NK Osijek sit 3rd on 20 points; Istra 1961 are 6th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.