Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
CROHNL · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Opus Arena
NK Osijek
3rd · 20 pts1–1FULL TIME
HNK Gorica
10th · 7 pts72% NK
18% Draw
10% HNK
OUR PICK
NK Osijek to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.38
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.70
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.38X5.6929.80
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
NK OsijekHNK Gorica1.8Goals per game0.6
1.4Conceded per game1.7
1.67Points per game0.58
50%Win rate8%
5Goal difference-13
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
NK Osijek form
WLDLDA NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–3
H Rudes0–1
H HNK Gorica1–1
H Istra 19611–3
H Bsk Bijelo Brdo1–1
HNK Gorica form
LDDLDA HNK Hajduk Split5–0
H NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–0
A NK Osijek1–1
H Rudes1–2
H Bravo3–3
Head to head
1
NK
3
Draw
1
HNK
Oct 2026NK Osijek – HNK Gorica1–1
Aug 2026HNK Gorica – NK Osijek0–2
May 2026HNK Gorica – NK Osijek2–0
Mar 2026NK Osijek – HNK Gorica0–0
Dec 2025NK Osijek – HNK Gorica1–1
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes NK Osijek clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.23 for NK Osijek, 0.70 for HNK Gorica), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NK Osijek sit 3rd on 20 points; HNK Gorica are 10th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.