Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
CROHNL · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadion Maksimir
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9th · 11 pts0–1FULL TIME
NK Varazdin
4th · 19 pts31% NK
27% Draw
43% NK
OUR PICK
NK Varazdin to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.33
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.27X3.7622.33
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Varazdin1.2Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game0.9
0.92Points per game1.58
25%Win rate42%
-6Goal difference5
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb form
LDDWLH NK Osijek1–3
A NK Varazdin1–1
A HNK Gorica0–0
H Istra 19612–0
H NK Varazdin0–1
NK Varazdin form
DDLLWA HNK Rijeka1–1
H NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
H NK Slaven Belupo1–2
A HNK Hajduk Split1–0
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0–1
Head to head
1
NK
3
Draw
1
NK
Oct 2026NK Varazdin – NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
Oct 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – NK Varazdin0–1
Jun 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – NK Varazdin2–1
May 2026NK Varazdin – NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
Mar 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – NK Varazdin1–1
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes NK Varazdin slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.13 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 1.39 for NK Varazdin), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sit 9th on 11 points; NK Varazdin are 4th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.