Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
CROHNL · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadion Maksimir
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9th · 11 pts2–0FULL TIME
Istra 1961
6th · 16 pts27% NK
23% Draw
50% Istra
OUR PICK
Istra 1961 to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.85
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.68X4.4022.00
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
62%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebIstra 19611.2Goals per game1.8
1.7Conceded per game1.5
0.92Points per game1.33
25%Win rate33%
-6Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb form
LDDWLH NK Osijek1–3
A NK Varazdin1–1
A HNK Gorica0–0
H Istra 19612–0
H NK Varazdin0–1
Istra 1961 form
WDLWLA NK Slaven Belupo0–2
H HNK Hajduk Split2–2
A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–0
A NK Osijek1–3
H HNK Gorica0–1
Head to head
3
NK
1
Draw
1
Istra
Oct 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 19612–0
Aug 2026Istra 1961 – NK Lokomotiva Zagreb2–3
Apr 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 19612–0
Jan 2026Istra 1961 – NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1–1
Oct 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 19611–2
HNL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split12+1526
2Dinamo Zagreb11+1122
3NK Osijek12+520
4NK Varazdin12+519
5HNK Rijeka11+318
6Istra 196112+316
7NK Slaven Belupo12-1113
8Rudes12-1213
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12-611
10HNK Gorica12-137
Match preview
Our model makes Istra 1961 slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.31 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 1.85 for Istra 1961), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sit 9th on 11 points; Istra 1961 are 6th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.