Over 1.5 goals@1.93
Over 1.5
52%
NGANPFL · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Bako Kontagora Stadium
Niger Tornadoes
8th · 16 pts2–1FULL TIME
Ikorodu City
13th · 14 pts34% Niger
34% Draw
32% Ikorodu
OUR PICK
Niger Tornadoes to win
Model probability 34% · fair odds
2.91
Expected goals
0.89 – 0.85
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.91X2.9823.11
Goals 2.5Over3.77Under1.34
Both scoreGG2.77NG1.51
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Under 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.51
NG
66%
Double chance@1.47
1X
68%
Season stats
Niger TornadoesIkorodu City0.8Goals per game1.4
0.7Conceded per game1.2
1.45Points per game1.27
36%Win rate27%
1Goal difference2
11Form, last 5 (pts)5
Niger Tornadoes form
DWWDWH Barau FC0–0
A Abia Warriors0–1
H Ikorodu City2–1
A Ranchers Bees0–0
H Kun Khalifat FC1–0
Ikorodu City form
DDLWLA Doma United2–2
H Shooting Stars2–2
A Niger Tornadoes2–1
H Kwara United2–0
A Rivers United2–0
Head to head
2
Niger
1
Draw
2
Ikorodu
Oct 2026Niger Tornadoes – Ikorodu City2–1
Feb 2026Ikorodu City – Niger Tornadoes2–0
Sept 2025Niger Tornadoes – Ikorodu City4–2
Apr 2025Ikorodu City – Niger Tornadoes3–0
Nov 2024Niger Tornadoes – Ikorodu City0–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Niger Tornadoes 34%, the draw 34%, Ikorodu City 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.89 for Niger Tornadoes, 0.85 for Ikorodu City), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Niger Tornadoes sit 8th on 16 points; Ikorodu City are 13th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.