Over 1.5 goals@1.81
Over 1.5
55%
NGANPFL · Matchday 11Friday, 30 October 2026 · Bako Kontagora Stadium
Niger Tornadoes
8th · 16 pts0–0FULL TIME
Barau FC
7th · 16 pts37% Niger
32% Draw
31% Barau
OUR PICK
Niger Tornadoes to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.71
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.87
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.71X3.1023.24
Goals 2.5Over3.37Under1.39
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.57
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Under 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.57
NG
64%
Double chance@1.45
1X
69%
Season stats
Niger TornadoesBarau FC0.8Goals per game1.2
0.7Conceded per game0.9
1.45Points per game1.45
36%Win rate27%
1Goal difference3
11Form, last 5 (pts)4
Niger Tornadoes form
DWWDWH Barau FC0–0
A Abia Warriors0–1
H Ikorodu City2–1
A Ranchers Bees0–0
H Kun Khalifat FC1–0
Barau FC form
DDDDLA Niger Tornadoes0–0
H Kwara United1–1
A Rivers United0–0
H Enugu Rangers2–2
A Bendel Insurance4–1
Head to head
1
Niger
1
Draw
1
Barau
Oct 2026Niger Tornadoes – Barau FC0–0
Jan 2026Barau FC – Niger Tornadoes2–1
Dec 2025Niger Tornadoes – Barau FC2–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Niger Tornadoes 37%, the draw 32%, Barau FC 31%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.98 for Niger Tornadoes, 0.87 for Barau FC), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Niger Tornadoes sit 8th on 16 points; Barau FC are 7th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.