Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Allianz Riviera
Nice
8th · 14 pts2–1FULL TIME
Strasbourg
12th · 10 pts49% Nice
22% Draw
30% Strasbourg
OUR PICK
Nice to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.54
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.05X4.6423.36
Goals 2.5Over1.45Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.47NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.47
GG
68%
Double chance@1.27
12
78%
Season stats
NiceStrasbourg1.4Goals per game1.9
1.3Conceded per game2.1
1.56Points per game1.11
44%Win rate33%
1Goal difference-2
12Form, last 5 (pts)3
Nice form
No recent matches.
Strasbourg form
WLLLLH Auxerre5–1
A Rennes3–0
H Paris Saint Germain1–3
A Nice2–1
A Paris FC2–1
Head to head
2
Nice
2
Draw
1
Strasbourg
Oct 2026Nice – Strasbourg2–1
Apr 2026Strasbourg – Nice0–2
Apr 2026Strasbourg – Nice3–1
Jan 2026Nice – Strasbourg1–1
Apr 2025Strasbourg – Nice2–2
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Nice slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.01 for Nice, 1.54 for Strasbourg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nice sit 8th on 14 points; Strasbourg are 12th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.