Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Rodney Parade
Newport County
14th · 18 pts1–1FULL TIME
York
7th · 20 pts47% Newport
23% Draw
30% York
OUR PICK
Newport County to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.14X4.3323.32
Goals 2.5Over1.63Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Newport CountyYork1.4Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.29Points per game1.43
29%Win rate36%
3Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Newport County form
WLDDWH Chesterfield4–1
A Cheltenham1–0
A Rotherham2–2
H York1–1
H Colchester1–0
York form
LLWDDA Grimsby5–2
A Barnet3–1
H Port Vale2–0
H Accrington ST1–1
A Newport County1–1
Head to head
3
Newport
1
Draw
1
York
Oct 2026Newport County – York1–1
Jan 2016York – Newport County0–1
Sept 2015Newport County – York0–3
Apr 2015York – Newport County0–2
Oct 2014Newport County – York3–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Newport County slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.78 for Newport County, 1.39 for York), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newport County sit 14th on 18 points; York are 7th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.