Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Rodney Parade
Newport County
14th · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
Colchester
23rd · 12 pts56% Newport
24% Draw
20% Colchester
OUR PICK
Newport County to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.95
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.79X4.2424.89
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
51%
Double chance@1.26
1X
80%
Season stats
Newport CountyColchester1.4Goals per game0.9
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.29Points per game0.92
29%Win rate15%
3Goal difference-7
8Form, last 5 (pts)2
Newport County form
WLDDWH Chesterfield4–1
A Cheltenham1–0
A Rotherham2–2
H York1–1
H Colchester1–0
Colchester form
LLDDLH Walsall1–3
A Northampton2–0
A Chesterfield1–1
H Exeter City0–0
A Newport County1–0
Head to head
1
Newport
1
Draw
3
Colchester
Oct 2026Newport County – Colchester1–0
Mar 2026Newport County – Colchester1–2
Dec 2025Colchester – Newport County4–1
Apr 2025Newport County – Colchester0–2
Dec 2024Colchester – Newport County0–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Newport County clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.74 for Newport County, 0.95 for Colchester), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newport County sit 14th on 18 points; Colchester are 23rd on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.