Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 14Friday, 30 October 2026 · Rodney Parade
Newport County
14th · 18 pts4–1FULL TIME
Chesterfield
10th · 19 pts37% Newport
25% Draw
38% Chesterfield
OUR PICK
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.67
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.70X3.9322.67
Goals 2.5Over1.91Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Newport CountyChesterfield1.4Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.29Points per game1.36
29%Win rate36%
3Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Newport County form
WLDDWH Chesterfield4–1
A Cheltenham1–0
A Rotherham2–2
H York1–1
H Colchester1–0
Chesterfield form
LWDLDA Newport County4–1
H Crewe5–1
H Colchester1–1
A Port Vale1–0
A Crawley Town2–2
Head to head
2
Newport
0
Draw
3
Chesterfield
Oct 2026Newport County – Chesterfield4–1
Jan 2026Newport County – Chesterfield2–1
Sept 2025Chesterfield – Newport County4–1
Mar 2025Chesterfield – Newport County2–1
Oct 2024Newport County – Chesterfield0–3
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Newport County 37%, the draw 25%, Chesterfield 38%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.38 for Newport County, 1.39 for Chesterfield), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newport County sit 14th on 18 points; Chesterfield are 10th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.