Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
82%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 15Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio Marcelo Bielsa
Newells Old Boys
14th · 15 pts1–1FULL TIME
Union Santa Fe
8th · 21 pts25% Newells
22% Draw
52% Union
OUR PICK
Union Santa Fe to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.91
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.90
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.95X4.4721.91
Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.64NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.64
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.64
GG
61%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
Newells Old BoysUnion Santa Fe0.9Goals per game1.5
1.7Conceded per game1.3
0.94Points per game1.31
19%Win rate31%
-12Goal difference4
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Newells Old Boys form
DDWLDH Union Santa Fe1–1
A San Lorenzo0–0
H Central Cordoba de Santiago2–1
A Gimnasia M.1–0
H Lanus0–0
Union Santa Fe form
DWDLLA Newells Old Boys1–1
H Estudiantes L.P.3–1
A Deportivo Riestra1–1
H Defensa Y Justicia0–2
A Boca Juniors3–0
Head to head
1
Newells
2
Draw
2
Union
Nov 2026Newells Old Boys – Union Santa Fe1–1
Apr 2026Union Santa Fe – Newells Old Boys2–3
Nov 2025Newells Old Boys – Union Santa Fe0–1
Apr 2025Union Santa Fe – Newells Old Boys1–1
Nov 2024Union Santa Fe – Newells Old Boys2–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Union Santa Fe slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.26 for Newells Old Boys, 1.90 for Union Santa Fe), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newells Old Boys sit 14th on 15 points; Union Santa Fe are 8th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.