Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Estadio Marcelo Bielsa
Newells Old Boys
14th · 15 pts0–0FULL TIME
Lanus
6th · 24 pts25% Newells
24% Draw
50% Lanus
OUR PICK
Lanus to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.98
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.66
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.97X4.1021.98
Goals 2.5Over1.92Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Newells Old BoysLanus0.9Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game0.9
0.94Points per game1.50
19%Win rate38%
-12Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)11
Newells Old Boys form
DDWLDH Union Santa Fe1–1
A San Lorenzo0–0
H Central Cordoba de Santiago2–1
A Gimnasia M.1–0
H Lanus0–0
Lanus form
DDWWDH Gimnasia M.0–0
A Banfield1–1
A Platense0–1
H Velez Sarsfield2–0
A Newells Old Boys0–0
Head to head
0
Newells
0
Draw
0
Lanus
These sides haven't met recently.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Lanus slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.98 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.10 for Newells Old Boys, 1.66 for Lanus), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newells Old Boys sit 14th on 15 points; Lanus are 6th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.