Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
AUSA-League · Matchday 3Saturday, 31 October 2026 · McDonald Jones Stadium
Newcastle Jets
10th · 2 pts0–3FULL TIME
Wellington Phoenix
1st · 9 pts32% Newcastle
26% Draw
42% Wellington
OUR PICK
Wellington Phoenix to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.45
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.10X3.8922.38
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Newcastle JetsWellington Phoenix1.0Goals per game2.3
2.0Conceded per game0.3
0.67Points per game3.00
0%Win rate100%
-3Goal difference6
2Form, last 5 (pts)9
Newcastle Jets form
LLDDLH Wellington Phoenix0–3
A Kyoto Sanga5–2
H Macarthur1–1
A Central Coast Mariners2–2
H Gamba Osaka1–3
Wellington Phoenix form
WWWLWA Newcastle Jets0–3
H Central Coast Mariners2–0
H Melbourne Victory2–1
A Macarthur4–0
H Western Sydney Wanderers2–1
Head to head
2
Newcastle
0
Draw
3
Wellington
Oct 2026Newcastle Jets – Wellington Phoenix0–3
Jan 2026Newcastle Jets – Wellington Phoenix4–1
Dec 2025Wellington Phoenix – Newcastle Jets1–3
Apr 2025Newcastle Jets – Wellington Phoenix1–2
Dec 2024Wellington Phoenix – Newcastle Jets2–1
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Melbourne Victory3-12
9Central Coast Mariners3-22
10Newcastle Jets3-32
Match preview
Our model makes Wellington Phoenix slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.24 for Newcastle Jets, 1.45 for Wellington Phoenix), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newcastle Jets sit 10th on 2 points; Wellington Phoenix are 1st on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.