Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
AUSA-League · Matchday 2Saturday, 24 October 2026 · McDonald Jones Stadium
Newcastle Jets
11th · 2 pts1–1FULL TIME
Macarthur
3rd · 5 pts29% Newcastle
26% Draw
44% Macarthur
OUR PICK
Macarthur to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.39X3.7822.27
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Newcastle JetsMacarthur1.0Goals per game1.0
2.0Conceded per game0.7
0.67Points per game1.67
0%Win rate33%
-3Goal difference1
2Form, last 5 (pts)5
Newcastle Jets form
LLLDDH SHANGHAI SIPG1–3
H Wellington Phoenix0–3
A Kyoto Sanga5–2
H Macarthur1–1
A Central Coast Mariners2–2
Macarthur form
DDWDWH Western Sydney Wanderers0–0
A Newcastle Jets1–1
H Perth Glory2–1
A SD Raiders1–1
A Uni Azzurri0–3
Head to head
2
Newcastle
1
Draw
2
Macarthur
Oct 2026Newcastle Jets – Macarthur1–1
Apr 2026Macarthur – Newcastle Jets3–2
Feb 2026Newcastle Jets – Macarthur1–0
Dec 2025Newcastle Jets – Macarthur4–5
Aug 2025Newcastle Jets – Macarthur3–0
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Macarthur slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.11 for Newcastle Jets, 1.42 for Macarthur), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newcastle Jets sit 11th on 2 points; Macarthur are 3rd on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.