Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 9Monday, 2 November 2026 · St James' Park
Newcastle
12th · 11 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Everton
14th · 10 pts43% Newcastle
26% Draw
31% Everton
OUR PICK
Newcastle to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.34
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.34X3.8523.20
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.96
Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.88
GG
53%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
NewcastleEverton1.5Goals per game1.0
1.8Conceded per game1.1
1.38Points per game1.25
38%Win rate25%
-2Goal difference-1
6Form, last 5 (pts)5
Newcastle form
No recent matches.
Everton form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Newcastle
0
Draw
0
Everton
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Manchester City9+1021
2Arsenal8+821
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool8+315
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Newcastle slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.44 for Newcastle, 1.19 for Everton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newcastle sit 12th on 11 points; Everton are 14th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.