Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · St James' Park
Newcastle
13th · 11 pts0–1FULL TIME
Aston Villa
10th · 12 pts51% Newcastle
23% Draw
27% Aston
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Over 2.5
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.55
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.28
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.98X4.3823.75
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
NewcastleAston Villa1.3Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.4
1.22Points per game1.33
33%Win rate33%
-3Goal difference-3
6Form, last 5 (pts)11
Newcastle form
LWLLWA Everton3–1
A Crystal Palace0–2
H Aston Villa0–1
A Coventry4–1
H Hull City2–1
Aston Villa form
DLWWWH Fulham1–1
A Bournemouth3–0
H Manchester City2–1
H Viking3–1
A Newcastle0–1
Head to head
1
Newcastle
1
Draw
3
Aston
Oct 2026Newcastle – Aston Villa0–1
Feb 2026Aston Villa – Newcastle1–3
Jan 2026Newcastle – Aston Villa0–2
Aug 2025Aston Villa – Newcastle0–0
Apr 2025Aston Villa – Newcastle4–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Newcastle slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.98 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.84 for Newcastle, 1.28 for Aston Villa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Newcastle sit 13th on 11 points; Aston Villa are 10th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.