Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Sports Illustrated Stadium
New York Red Bulls
0–2FULL TIME
Toronto FC
45% New
22% Draw
33% Toronto
OUR PICK
New York Red Bulls to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.22X4.4623.07
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
New York Red Bulls form
LLWLLA Nashville SC3–2
A New England Revolution3–2
H Inter Miami2–0
H Toronto FC0–2
A DC United2–1
Toronto FC form
LWLWDA Atlanta United FC3–1
H DC United2–1
A Columbus Crew4–2
A New York Red Bulls0–2
H Orlando City SC3–3
Head to head
2
New
2
Draw
1
Toronto
Oct 2026New York Red Bulls – Toronto FC0–2
Mar 2026Toronto FC – New York Red Bulls1–1
Jun 2025Toronto FC – New York Red Bulls1–1
Mar 2025New York Red Bulls – Toronto FC2–1
Oct 2024Toronto FC – New York Red Bulls1–4
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes New York Red Bulls slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.85 for New York Red Bulls, 1.55 for Toronto FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.