Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 28Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Sports Illustrated Stadium
New York Red Bulls
4–1FULL TIME
San Diego
12th · 38 pts36% New
23% Draw
42% San
OUR PICK
San Diego to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.76
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.81X4.4022.39
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
New York Red Bulls form
LLWLLA Nashville SC3–2
A New England Revolution3–2
H Inter Miami2–0
H Toronto FC0–2
A DC United2–1
San Diego form
WLDDDA St. Louis City0–1
A Vancouver Whitecaps4–1
H Seattle Sounders2–2
A Los Angeles Galaxy2–2
H Houston Dynamo3–3
Head to head
1
New
0
Draw
1
San
Oct 2026New York Red Bulls – San Diego4–1
Feb 2025San Diego – New York Red Bulls6–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: New York Red Bulls 36%, the draw 23%, San Diego 42%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.61 for New York Red Bulls, 1.76 for San Diego), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.