Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 34Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Sports Illustrated Stadium
New York Red Bulls
22:00KICK-OFF WAT
Atlanta United FC
46% New
24% Draw
30% Atlanta
OUR PICK
New York Red Bulls to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.18
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.29
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.18X4.1423.34
Goals 2.5Over1.78Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
59%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
New York Red Bulls form
LWLLWA New England Revolution3–2
H Inter Miami2–0
H Toronto FC0–2
A DC United2–1
H San Diego4–1
Atlanta United FC form
WLLLWH Toronto FC3–1
A New York City FC2–1
H Chicago Fire2–3
H Inter Miami1–3
A CF Montreal0–3
Head to head
1
New
1
Draw
3
Atlanta
Aug 2026Atlanta United FC – New York Red Bulls2–1
Feb 2026Atlanta United FC – New York Red Bulls3–2
May 2025New York Red Bulls – Atlanta United FC2–0
Mar 2025Atlanta United FC – New York Red Bulls0–0
Oct 2024Atlanta United FC – New York Red Bulls2–1
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes New York Red Bulls slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.18 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.65 for New York Red Bulls, 1.29 for Atlanta United FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.