Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 32Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Citi Field
New York City FC
2–1FULL TIME
Atlanta United FC
55% New
24% Draw
22% Atlanta
OUR PICK
New York City FC to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.00
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.83X4.2324.62
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
New York City FC form
DWDDLH CF Montreal1–1
H Atlanta United FC2–1
A Orlando City SC2–2
H Los Angeles FC1–1
A Inter Miami2–0
Atlanta United FC form
WLLLWH Toronto FC3–1
A New York City FC2–1
H Chicago Fire2–3
H Inter Miami1–3
A CF Montreal0–3
Head to head
2
New
2
Draw
1
Atlanta
Oct 2026New York City FC – Atlanta United FC2–1
Sept 2026Atlanta United FC – New York City FC2–2
Jun 2025New York City FC – Atlanta United FC4–0
Mar 2025Atlanta United FC – New York City FC4–3
Jul 2024Atlanta United FC – New York City FC2–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes New York City FC clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.74 for New York City FC, 1.00 for Atlanta United FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.