Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
USAUSL Championship · Round of 16Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
New Mexico United
00:00KICK-OFF WAT
Phoenix Rising
54% New
23% Draw
23% Phoenix
OUR PICK
New Mexico United to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.13
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X4.4024.33
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
New Mexico United form
WLWWLA El Paso Locomotive0–1
A San Antonio1–0
H Monterey Bay3–1
H Phoenix Rising2–1
A FC Tulsa1–0
Phoenix Rising form
DWWLLH Lexington3–3
A Orange County SC1–3
H Las Vegas Lights3–2
A New Mexico United2–1
A Oakland Roots3–0
Head to head
3
New
1
Draw
1
Phoenix
Oct 2026New Mexico United – Phoenix Rising2–1
Jun 2026New Mexico United – Phoenix Rising4–0
Apr 2026Phoenix Rising – New Mexico United3–0
Oct 2025Phoenix Rising – New Mexico United0–1
Jun 2025Phoenix Rising – New Mexico United3–3
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes New Mexico United clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.85 for New Mexico United, 1.13 for Phoenix Rising), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.