Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 4 October 2026 · Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
New Mexico United
2–1FULL TIME
Phoenix Rising
53% New
23% Draw
24% Phoenix
OUR PICK
New Mexico United to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.15
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.3324.14
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
New Mexico United form
WWLWWH Phoenix Rising2–0
A El Paso Locomotive0–1
A San Antonio1–0
H Monterey Bay3–1
H Phoenix Rising2–1
Phoenix Rising form
LDWWLA New Mexico United2–0
H Lexington3–3
A Orange County SC1–3
H Las Vegas Lights3–2
A New Mexico United2–1
Head to head
4
New
0
Draw
1
Phoenix
Nov 2026New Mexico United – Phoenix Rising2–0
Oct 2026New Mexico United – Phoenix Rising2–1
Jun 2026New Mexico United – Phoenix Rising4–0
Apr 2026Phoenix Rising – New Mexico United3–0
Oct 2025Phoenix Rising – New Mexico United0–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes New Mexico United slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.81 for New Mexico United, 1.15 for Phoenix Rising), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.