Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 11 October 2026 · Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
New Mexico United
3–1FULL TIME
Monterey Bay
63% New
21% Draw
16% Monterey
OUR PICK
New Mexico United to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.85
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X4.7126.38
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
New Mexico United form
WWLWWH Phoenix Rising2–0
A El Paso Locomotive0–1
A San Antonio1–0
H Monterey Bay3–1
H Phoenix Rising2–1
Monterey Bay form
WLLWLH Las Vegas Lights2–1
H Colorado Springs0–1
A New Mexico United3–1
A Orange County SC1–2
H Lexington2–3
Head to head
4
New
1
Draw
0
Monterey
Oct 2026New Mexico United – Monterey Bay3–1
Aug 2026Monterey Bay – New Mexico United2–5
Sept 2025Monterey Bay – New Mexico United1–1
Apr 2025New Mexico United – Monterey Bay1–0
Aug 2024New Mexico United – Monterey Bay3–2
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes New Mexico United clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.95 for New Mexico United, 0.85 for Monterey Bay), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.