Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 32Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Gillette Stadium
New England Revolution
3–2FULL TIME
New York Red Bulls
60% New
21% Draw
19% New
OUR PICK
New England Revolution to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.67
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.06
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.67X4.7425.21
Goals 2.5Over1.68Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.76
GG
57%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
New England Revolution form
LWWWWH Inter Miami1–2
H New York Red Bulls3–2
A Philadelphia Union1–2
H Chicago Fire1–0
A FC Cincinnati2–3
New York Red Bulls form
LLWLLA Nashville SC3–2
A New England Revolution3–2
H Inter Miami2–0
H Toronto FC0–2
A DC United2–1
Head to head
3
New
0
Draw
2
New
Oct 2026New England Revolution – New York Red Bulls3–2
Feb 2026New York Red Bulls – New England Revolution1–0
Jul 2025New York Red Bulls – New England Revolution5–3
Mar 2025New England Revolution – New York Red Bulls2–1
Jun 2024New England Revolution – New York Red Bulls1–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes New England Revolution clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.03 for New England Revolution, 1.06 for New York Red Bulls), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.